and our You know that whole "first-round wide receivers with a negative stat score have consistently busted in my model" thing that I talked about with Jaylen Waddle? To see previously sent newsletters, you can check out the newsletter archive. Pro Football Focus . Instead of just drafting from a list of players and crossing your fingers with the hopes that those players produce, host JJ Zachariason provides a process to help you find breakout candidates . Of that group, I am only buying the trio of Olave, Wilson, and London. Outside of the top two, it's a pick your favorite dart throw type of tight end class. That's due to the fact that he ranked in the top-eight in all three production-related categories in the model among the 50 wide receivers who were invited to the combine. Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1. NFL Draft Futures Betting: Who Will Be the First Defensive Player Drafted? I'll side with first-round running back history here, though, and continue to view Etienne as a high-end fantasy football asset. The spreadsheet information includes schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers, adjusted target share numbers, team pass rates in neutral and non-neutral game scripts, team target shares by position, quarterback deep-ball numbers and defensive deep-ball numbers, team touchdown trends, and player rush share and target share snapshots. He's the best athlete we've seen at the position since Vernon Davis, and he's got three inches on Davis. At least Burrow was highly, highly regarded. But at 214 pounds, White is unlikely to be a workhorse at any point in his career. He does have decent size and a good breakout age, but his stat score is below average. Corral has a decently high ceiling as a willing scrambler with accuracy and has enough weapons around him to succeed right away. That has to count for something. Better than good. Archived post. He ran a sub-4.4 40 time at his Pro Day. 2009-2018 numberFire, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. I'm don't think it's all that bad. Critical data provided by research and analysis ca There are multiple wide receivers from last years class on this list including Skyy Moore, Alec Pierce, Romeo Doubs, and WanDale Robinson. JJ Zachariason here. Which three 2nd year WRs should fantasy owners be buying this off-season? The DLF Dynasty Podcast #557 Off-Season Player Movement Mock Draft & A Combine Preview, Trade Addicts Podcast 252 Episode Names are Hard to Think of, Dynasty Theory 192 2023 Quarterback Movement, The DLF Dynasty Podcast #556 Rookie ADP & More Coaching Talk. This is my first year doing this by myself, so comments about the stuff I'm creating is really, really helpful. Regular Season. 2023 is the type of draft class you want to make those bets on. Adams, one of the most prolific touchdown-scoring wide receivers of our generation, only once in his nine-season career had a TD/Target rate greater than Dotsons 11.5% rate last year when he scored 18 during his ridiculous 2018 year. Eskridge has one of the highest best-season yards per team pass attempt rates in my database, and the man can fly. He had a strong Freshman season at Alabama where he outproduced first-round talent like the aforementioned Smith and Henry Ruggs. They could use some speed on offense, and Schwartz brings that, having run a 4.26 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. He dedicates 25 pages to explain fundamentals and the process, 15-30 pages for each position (concluding each one with "your 2022 plan of attack"), 35 pages of player takes, and then his rankings. He has a complete production profile (aside from not being an early-declare receiver), and his prospect score in my model is well above average for a fourth-round pick. Click here to learn more! Had Chuba Hubbard not played in 2020, he may have been a Day 2 pick. And that's why it wouldn't bother me at all if you opt to go with Chase over Harris at the 1.01 spot in single-quarterback rookie drafts. If there's one first-round wide receiver who I'd point to having the most fantasy football bust potential, it's Toney. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 8Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 4Post-Draft Positional Rank: 2Tier: 3. As a team, 49ers backs ranked third in fantasy points per game last year. But -- but! Join. To me, the Falcons don't make Pitts the fourth-overall selection to have him stay at the line blocking like the typical tight end. RESEARCH & ANALYSIS of statistical trends within professional sports is having a massive impact on the game of fantasy football. Like Javonte Williams, Sermon was a trade-up running back -- San Francisco moved up to Pick 88 to select him. Ive found some noticeable trends that are actionable or at least a decent guide to expectation. Looking to play Best Ball on Underdog? JJ answers those questions as he goes over his post-draft rankings. Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100! Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 18Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 2Post-Draft Positional Rank: 3Tier: 6. "will deploy a running back by committee as long as Mike LaFleur is their offensive coordinator. Try DLF Premium for only $7.99 with a Monthly Subscription. Post-Draft Rookie Ranks, Positional and Top 50. by Pat Kerrane Twitter profile: @PatKerrane. If we knew Deshaun Watson would be the quarterback, Collins would be more in the Amon-Ra St. Brown tier -- he'd likely be ahead of St. Brown. You can support pahowdy belowif you, like: Youtube: youtube.com/c/PeterHowardPahowdy. Kadarius Toney falls into that group, too. But it's not like we have a big sample of Meyer as a coach in the NFL, so anything's possible. That's the feeling I get. 1. Why cant I get anything close to startup value for Justin Fields? Allgeier slots in as Day 3 Derrick Henry in the Falcons' ongoing quest to assemble the JV Titans. I dont like wasting capital on assets that cant provide a material change to my roster when possible. 3. Looking for JJs articles? Available on Apple Podcasts , TuneIn , Stitcher , Spotify , and more . Don't forget, Luck usually averaged around 300 rushing yards with a handful of rushing touchdowns per season. Running Backs Positional Analysis. Contact Us. Let me know and I'll get to them in the next edition of the @DLFootball Dynasty Fantasy Football mailbag! I'm not totally sure where it originated from but I first heard Ben Gretch (@yardspergretch) lay it out and JJ Zachariason (@lateroundqb . Latest YouTube video youtube: https://youtu.be/Ic-nV8FMQYk Links: Database: https://www.patreon.com/posts/46218140, Jake Anderson (@NFLdrafttalker) made most of my graphics, Zac Reed (@tacitassassin13) made the intro and some of the background music, Gabe Geering (@FFmanbun) made the Chicken or Crow theme song for @dynastycrossroads. Tight End. But it's not reasonable to assume that just because I like him as a player, that he's a lock to be elite. The other reason is because of draft capital, but Long was still a Day 2 pick. Find out more, Have questions or need some help? Marshall had medical issues that popped up right before the draft, and that could be the reason we saw him as a second-round wideout instead of a first-round one. White doesn't need to carve out a specific role in the offense to flash receiving ability. The DLF Dynasty Podcast #555 Super Bowl Fallout, Superflex Mock Draft, and Rookies! Hunter Long is similar in size to Pat Freiermuth but didn't have quite as strong of a production profile in college. Brian Powers-USA TODAY Sports. The award-winning Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast is a fantasy football show that helps you win through bite-sized, analytically-driven episodes. Theres a small cottage industry thats sprung up around trashing trade calculators. Both single-quarterback and superflex. Drafting Josh Palmer is all about draft capital and landing spot. Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure JJ coined the term "running back deadzone" which is now used by pretty much every other analyst in the industry. That type of rushing production will give him a little more leeway to develop as a passer in the NFL. Hes now talked to an audience of fantasy football diehards for almost a decade. Here's the thing. The good news is he fell to Carolina, reuniting him with ex-LSU passing game coordinator Joe Brady. The Podfather and JJ Zachariason explain the revolution of quarterback value in fantasy football.#fantasyfootball #draftstrategy #quarterback #fantasyfootbal. His average depth of target was 361st in college football in limited time last year, but that's also how Purdue used him throughout his collegiate career. Top-10 Rookie WR Rankings with JJ Zachariason. Weather info Powered by Dark Sky. Javonte Williams landed in Denver after the Broncos traded up to get him, and while it may not seem like a great landing spot, it's really not so bad. Reddit and its partners use cookies and similar technologies to provide you with a better experience. And, as we know, Kyle Shanahan's running scheme can be productive for fantasy purposes. That'll happen when the draft is pretty boring. He should be able to capture receiving work right away, and since the New York running back room is lacking, he could see a good chunk of early-down work, too. Maybe I'm pulling a Jets and doubling down on a mistake, but I'm still taking shots on Malik Willis. We are looking to add some new contributors to our talented team. All rights reserved. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 22Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 3Post-Draft Positional Rank: 4Tier: 7. Since 2006, the model has seen nine wide receivers selected in Round 1 with a negative stat score, and zero of the nine have been reliable fantasy football assets. Available on Apple Podcasts, TuneIn, Stitcher, Spotify, and more. For me, sometimes I miss a few things on the podcast that made more sense when I read through it in the guide. Robert Woods will have a role on the Titans once healthy, as will Kyle Pitts on the Falcons, but both Burks and London have a very low bar to clear for rookie production. After Dotson, there comes the point where you're really just better off drafting running backs. He may play a little undersized -- he weighed in at 215 pounds at his Pro Day, but. It doesn't seem that bold to think he'll be the best rookie wideout statistically in 2021. Preseason. Rookie tight ends don't produce in fantasy football. Agree. Those are both impressive marks. . Copyright 2006-2022 Fantasy Sports Enterprises, LLC. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 5Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 1Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1Tier: 2. If you filter out the players who had a best-season yards per team pass attempt that was under 3.0, seven players remain: Corey Davis, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Justin Blackmon, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly for $9.99. Tyler Lockett was my pre-draft comparison -- that's what we're working with when it comes to Elijah Moore. JJ Zachariason @LateRoundQB Feb 24th, 2023. Not only that, but the opportunity cost for Buffalo being more pass-heavy was smaller than it would be for Baltimore. Najee Harris was at the top of my pre-draft rookie rankings, and then he was selected by the Steelers in Round 1, giving him the best landing spot of any . Josh Allen has two of the top 25 seasons in 2021 when he finished as the QB1, and in 2022 when he finished as the QB3. Chris Olave (13.21), Garrett Wilson (12.69), Christian Watson (11.72), Jahan Dotson (10.88), and Drake London (10.51) all eclipsed the feat last year. under center, the Ravens have thrown the ball 846 times. February 27, 2023. He competed well with. At 178 pounds and without elite speed (4.43 40), Dotson could ultimately develop into slower Darnell Mooney (4.38). As a member, you receive exclusive content, community access, behind-the-scenes updates, and the pride of fueling work that matters to you. Lance has that, and he probably has that more than any other signal-caller in this class. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 4Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 3Post-Draft Positional Rank: 3Tier: 2. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 17Tier: 11. Per Sannes, despite this schedule, Fields ranks in the 74th percentile in adjusted yards per attempt among first-round quarterback selections since the turn of the century. And, at the surface, all it took was Stefon Diggs to make the shift. They waited on the position and got Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth with the 112th pick. Williams broke the Pro Football Focus record in broken tackles per attempt last year, and he has good pass-catching ability, as well. With early fourth-round draft capital, Fitzpatrick is a 67th percentile prospect in the model, which isn't noteworthy at all. 3. Finally, it also provides links to any recent trades involving both players (or picks) involved in your particular deal. Had he landed in a better situation, it would be an easier sell. I think the guide covers more than the podcast (especially for referencing things), but totally get it if you thought some of it was redundant. He's one of 11 drafted wide receivers with a best-season yards per team attempt rate north of 3.0, and with a strong breakout age, Brown is listed as an 81st percentile prospect according to the model. However, working with the current DLF ADP, what can we say about the early fourth round this year? He's a low-floor play, but his ADP mostly bakes that in. Below are my post-draft positional rookie ranks and a Superflex top 50. 11. In hindsight, I should've given Elijah Moore a little more love when I talked about him before the draft. Despite his fairly impressive production -- he had a best-season yards per team pass attempt rate of 4.23, ranking third-best in the class -- to go along with early declare status and a good breakout age, it's just tough to ignore that he weighs about as much as I did when I was an eighth-grader. James Snook-USA TODAY Sports. Fantasy football doesn't have to feel so luck-driven. , and that helped give him a high-end breakout age. For better context of how high Dotson and Watsons TD/Target rate was last year, Davante Adams (who led the league with 14 touchdowns) scored on a 7.8% rate and Travis Kelce (second in the league with 12 touchdowns) scored on 7.9% of his targets. I see the clearest path to long-term starting roles for Jeremy Ruckert and Daniel Bellinger, but there's no shame in panic-picking Isaiah Likely. The Ravens run the football efficiently. In the image at the bottom of this article I have a versus ADP column that compares my overall ranks to this ADP. That's a good sign, as noted earlier, for his potential right away. I purchased it as a huge JJ fan. There is some worry about athleticism with Long, though, and that could really limit his fantasy football upside. If the A.J. Here is an updated set of dynasty and keeper rankings for those of you in those kinds of leagues: An overall top 240. You can preorder the 2023 prospect guide below. The amount of information he provides is insane. Trade Addicts Podcast 251 Spending Valentines with a Heartthrob, Dynasty Crossroads Episode 257 Travis May, pt 3, SuperFlex SuperShow 233 Not Extreme But Extremely Effective, Dynasty Theory 191 Patron Startup Breakdown. , and he could make a Luck-like impact on the ground in the NFL. If it's too expensive for you, don't buy it. That little e-book led him to a job at numberFire where he helped build the sites content business from the ground up. Dynasty Rankings. He scored as a 74th percentile running back in my model post-draft -- that's nothing to write home about. Falcons WR Drake London. Weather info Powered by Dark Sky. But Etienne should be a PPR machine, similar to how we're viewing D'Andre Swift in dynasty today. The landing spot is fine, the draft capital is there, and he should be able to see the field as Seattle's number-three wide receiver pretty quickly. Through those contests, though, he had more receiving yards than Heisman winner Devonta Smith. That makes him a top-20 prospect at the position since 2006. The DLF Dynasty Podcast #557 . #packers #shorts, The Dynasty Grind: QB Value SZN (also the combine or something), EVERYTHING You Need For the 2023 NFL Combine | Dynasty Fantasy Football. Jets WR Garrett Wilson. Elite draft capital is a big deal. We know how Sam Darnold's 2022 is going to go. In fact, he comes in as a 44th percentile prospect in my model. The Podfather invites top experts to discuss the impact of blockbuster NFL trades, injuries to superstars, and insights into the best fantasy draft strategy and . What if Powell is that dude? The goat himself! For Whom The Tolls. Hell teach you logical, numbers-driven processes that have guided him to consistent winning. In my model, every player has what's called a "stat score" -- it's a score derived from the three main production metrics. He breaks down the fundamentals that go into a strong process, and he does so in digestible ways with examples that are easy to understand. Specifically, his 0.98 yards per route run put him in the Cam Akers (0.93), Ezekiel Elliott (0.88) and Melvin Gordon (0.81) receiving tier, where he should be a capable receiver but won't necessarily dictate a pass-catching role. JJ Zachariason. 2023 Rookie Rankings; Dynasty Top 250 Rankings; Dynasty QB Rankings; . When you get to this point in your rookie draft -- especially this year's rookie draft -- you're looking for some sort of story you can tell about a player that shows that he has upside. Ranks to this ADP out more, have questions or need some help continue to view Etienne a! Doing this by myself, so anything 's possible to provide you with a Monthly.... Know has a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER check out the archive... Than any other signal-caller in this class talented team that more than other... 22Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 4Post-Draft Positional Rank jj zachariason dynasty rankings 4Tier: 7 football asset early fourth round this year JV... # quarterback # fantasyfootbal you with a Monthly Subscription up to pick 88 select... Leeway to develop as a willing scrambler with accuracy and has enough weapons around to! Ground up he goes over his post-draft Rankings eskridge has one of the highest best-season yards per team pass rates... To select him nothing to write home about select him attempt last year, and he has good ability... Vernon Davis, and that helped give him a high-end fantasy football @ PatKerrane deploy a running in. Of statistical trends within professional sports is having a massive impact on the game fantasy... Owners be buying this off-season, Spotify, and that helped give a! 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